GEOALERT SIDC
3-day-forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity.| Source | SIDC (RWC-Belgium) |
| Frequency | Daily |
| Format | Encoded data (ISES) |
| Mail header | GEOALERT SIDC |
| SIDC code | xut |
Latest issue
:Issued: 2024 May 15 1250 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# GEOALERT BRU136 UGEOA 30512 40515 1250/ 9930/ 12152 21152 37152 99999 PLAIN PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 202 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 192 / AP: 004 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours with three X-class flares detected during the last 24 hours. The brightest flare was a long-lasting X8.7 emited from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group 86) yesterday at 16:51 UTC. The same AR produced the rest of the X-class flare activity, namely an X3.4 that peaked today at 08:37 UTC and an X1.2 that peaked yesterday at 12:55 UTC. NOAA AR 3682 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 7) was also active during the past 24 hours with its brightest flare being an M4 yesterday at 17:38 UTC. Although NOAA AR 3664 is expected to remain highly active, it is currently rotating behind the west solar limb and its activity will be significantly obscured in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3682 is expected to continue its activity at an M-class level during the next 24 hours. Isolated X-class events are still possible, either from NOAA AR 3664 or 3682. Coronal mass ejections: Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) with possibly Earth-directed components can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday. A better estimation will be made as more data become available. Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are gradually returning to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 590 to 490 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 3 and 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive at Earth today and disturb the SW conditions. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3- to 1 and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active levels as a result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained well above the 10 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours. This is proven to be a long-lasting proton event, thus the proton flux is expected to remain above the alert level for most, if not all, of the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained at the 1000 pfu alert level during the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain approximately at this level for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased to moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected remain at the moderate level in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 190, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. 99999 UGEOI 30512 40515 1250/ 14/// 1//// 22205 3010/ 4//// 8//// 9//// 99999 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 14 1240 1255 1305 ////// X1.2 86/3664 III/1II/2 14 1646 1651 1702 ////// X8.7 86/3664 IV/1II/2 14 1725 1738 1818 N19E72 M4.4 2N ///3682 II/2III/2 15 0818 0837 0852 ////// X3.4 /////// III/3VI/3IV/1 END UGEOR 30512 40515 1250/ ///// ///// 99999 USSPS 32404 13049 19722 56057 37820 57614 62003 43427 2/802 63002 41119 11307 64003 11519 21303 65002 41224 21406 66001 23909 2/801 67007 25013 31305 68006 34615 21409 69006 20621 21410 70000 16309 0/101 71004 27108 21303 72005 17816 21503 73001 30807 2/803 USSPS 31405 13070 25242 01003 30808 11307 02012 20621 24418 03005 25013 21306 04002 16008 12302 05002 17417 13402 06004 27418 24404 07003 18014 2/801 86065 37719 59613 92007 43427 2/803 93004 41120 21307 94005 41423 25407 95006 11419 22305 96002 23809 2/801 97008 34614 25413 98001 34203 0/101 99001 41326 01202 USSPS 21305 13157 22932 80165 48020 57411 87011 44026 2/804 88005 41817 11406 89003 41823 11311 90007 10817 21304 92002 23309 2/801 93009 24513 31309 94009 35215 21411 95012 20323 21314 97001 15709 01203 96012 26908 31308 99002 16918 0/104 00000 31509 0/102 01006 17514 2/801 UMAGF 30503 40515 1004/ 14069 1/014 21322 32122 UMAGF 31523 40515 0000/ 14009 1/010 22223 33331 #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Details
The Geoalert message starts with the code GEOALERT BRUXXX, where xxx is the day-of-the-year number.Besides the ISES codes like UGEOA, UGEOI, UGEOR and USSPS, this message contains the following information:
PLAIN
PREDICTIONS FOR "today" : 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+1": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
PREDICTIONS FOR "today+2": 10CM FLUX: xxx / AP: xxx
99999
This gives the predicted 10.7 cm radioflux and the predicted Ap index for 3 days starting on the date of the message
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
This is the header of a table that lists all major events.
DAY gives the day-of-the-month.
BEGIN, MAX and END give the UT time of the different phases of the X-ray output of the event.
LOC gives the location of the event in heliographic coordinates.
XRAY gives the GOES X-ray class of the event.
OP lists the optical flare class.
10cm gives the 10.7 cm radioflux output of the event.
TYPE specifies the type of radiobursts observed.
Catania gives the Catania sunspot group number where the event happened.
NOAA is the corresponding NOAA active region number.
NOTE is the header of any other type of information, e.g. if a CME was observed associated with the event.
Check the ISES code book for information on ISES codes.