SIDC Ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 15 1252 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40515
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 May 2024, 1250UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 202 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 192 / AP: 004

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during
the last 24 hours with three X-class flares detected during the last 24
hours. The brightest flare was a long-lasting X8.7 emited from NOAA Active
Region (AR) 3664 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot
group 86) yesterday at 16:51 UTC. The same AR produced the rest of the
X-class flare activity, namely an X3.4 that peaked today at 08:37 UTC and
an X1.2 that peaked yesterday at 12:55 UTC. NOAA AR 3682 (magnetic
configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 7) was also active during
the past 24 hours with its brightest flare being an M4 yesterday at 17:38
UTC. Although NOAA AR 3664 is expected to remain highly active, it is
currently rotating behind the west solar limb and its activity will be
significantly obscured in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3682 is expected to
continue its activity at an M-class level during the next 24 hours.
Isolated X-class events are still possible, either from NOAA AR 3664 or
3682.

Coronal mass ejections: Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) with possibly
Earth-directed components can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images as launched
yesterday. A better estimation will be made as more data become available.

Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are gradually returning to the
slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 590 to
490 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between
3 and 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4
nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly
directed away from the Sun. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to
arrive at Earth today and disturb the SW conditions.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally
unsettled to quiet (NOAA Kp 3- to 1 and K BEL 3 to 2) during the past 24
hours. In the next 24 hours they are expected to reach active levels as a
result of the expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the
GOES-18 satellite, remained well above the 10 pfu alert threshold during
the last 24 hours. This is proven to be a long-lasting proton event, thus
the proton flux is expected to remain above the alert level for most, if
not all, of the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-18 satellite, remained at the 1000 pfu alert level during the
past 24 hours. It is expected to remain approximately at this level for the
next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence increased to moderate levels during the past 24
hours. It is expected remain at the moderate level in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 190, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 220
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 009
ESTIMATED ISN          : 186, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
14  1240  1255 1305 ////// X1.2          86/3664      III/1II/2 
14  1646  1651 1702 ////// X8.7          86/3664      IV/1II/2 
14  1725  1738 1818 N19E72 M4.4 2N       ///3682      II/2III/2 
15  0818  0837 0852 ////// X3.4          ///////      III/3VI/3IV/1 
END

BT
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