:Issued: 2024 Apr 29 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40429 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Apr 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Apr 2024 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 01 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 014 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M3.7-flare, with peak time 01:11 UTC on April 29 and the second largest flare was M2.5-flare, with peak time 00:48 UTC on April 29, both flares were associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma- delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3652 (alfa) and NOAA AR 3658 (beta) have started to rotate over the west limb. A new yet unnumbered active region has started to emerge on the north-east quadrant of the visible Solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Coronal holes: A long negative polarity coronal hole stretching from high northern latitudes down to the equator continues is passing the central meridian. The high-speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth late on May 1st. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions remained enhanced, possibly under influence of a high-speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 390 to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 8 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain mildly elevated with possible new mild high speed stream arrivals on and May 1st. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (K 1-2) and locally reached unsettled conditions (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 105, BASED ON 23 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Apr 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 140 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 035 ESTIMATED ISN : 120, BASED ON 16 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 29 0033 0048 0054 S08W40 M2.5 1N 74/3654 29 0054 0111 0120 ////// M3.7 74/3654 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#